covid_analyses

[EDIT: Removed an irrelevant paragraph.] There were suggestions earlier that 1st dose was "for sure" more effective, and judging by UK response some countries are desperate enough to try this without a trial. You didn't mean it, but it's possible some places will go for it. I'm just asking people to look before they leap, it's not a sure thing. >Indeed, the whole core assumption on that time series data is so bad-- assuming that people will behave the same from days 0-7 and from 7 on, when they've been cautioned that the vaccine is not immediately effective... Seriously, smh. Well, according to his github explanation[0] there was an attempt to account for that: "It is assumed that on the days following the vaccination, there is increased caution to avoid social encounters." [0] https://github.com/dviraran/covid_analyses

He explains this at his github repo, it's a statistical parameter to try to adjust for lack of proper control group (this is based on real-world data and not on an experiment): https://github.com/dviraran/covid_analyses "However, an underlying assumption here is that the incidence rates of those that were vaccinated early are similar to the general population. Previous analyses have shown that this is not the case as older populations have lower incidence and lower socio-economic groups have higher incidence.4 Therefore, we perform a sensitivity analysis by adjusting incidence rates using different levels of beta values (Figure 1)..."